Doc still not Doc

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Roy Halladay

Doc, along with everyone else, is wondering what the heck is happening.

I wish that I had better news about Roy “Doc” Halladay’s second start of the regular season last night, but I don’t.  It was discouraging to say the least.

The former ace gave up 7 runs on 6 hits while lasting just 4.1 innings.

Doc continues to struggle with his command, walking 3 and beaning 1 more in the process.  He has thrown 2 wild pitches and hit another batter in just 2 starts, matching his season totals for each of the previous 2 seasons in wild pitches, and puts him on pace to hit 15+ batters this season.  I know he talked about Chase giving him advice to hit more batters, but to me this one was not intentional, or needed, for that matter.

Following last night’s performance, Doc’s ERA is sitting at an astronomical 14.73, which, ironically enough, is pretty much identical to both his H/9 and SO/9, both 14.7 according to baseball-reference.com.  That has to be some sort of record, right?

Another worrisome stat to point out is Doc gave up 7 runs in just 4.1 innings last night against the Mets, which he only “accomplished” after his previous 6 starts and 44.2 innings against our division foes.  Not very promising.

So, Doc is still not Doc, but there is still a silver lining to all this, believe it or not.  Although, I admit, it was much harder to find last night.  Doc’s average fastball velocity (according to ESPN.com) jumped up a tick last night to 89.7 mph from 88.7 mph in his first start.  This leads me to believe (and continue to hope) that the problems facing Doc are mechanical.  Yeah, we’ll stick with that.

So what is the problem?

Doc is not repeating anything the way he used to.  Even his curveball - which in his previous start was pretty nasty – was uncontrollable.  Humberto Quintero had a busy night blocking the ball, to say the least.

I may not have all the fancy electronics as the guys over at the MLB network to compare things like arm slot, release point, and plant foot location, but I didn’t need it to see that things were just off last night.  Again, some of his pitches were beautiful, with late movement and good location.  Unfortunately, for Doc and the Phillies, they were few and far between last night.

If anything, although his velocity progressed, his location and overall control regressed.  Maybe he is worrying too much about getting his mph’s up, while somewhat forgetting to keep his pitches down.

Final Analysis

Doc needs to stop worrying about what people, like myself, are saying about his velocity.  He needs to take his cues from the great Greg Maddox, who, at the twilight of his career, never threw harder than about 88 mph.  What did he have?  Pinpoint accuracy and good movement on all his pitches.

I honestly don’t care how hard Doc’s throwing, as long as he figures out how to place it accurately with some late life.  That should be his main concern right now, not lighting up the radar gun.

I hate to say it, but if this continues for another 2 starts or so, he may have to take a trip to Clearwater or at least down the road to Lehigh Valley to get his stuff under control without the bright lights of “The Show” upon him.

My vote, if it does come to this, is to bring up Adam Morgan for a few starts to see what this kid can do.  He impressed me the most out of all the young guns that were in camp this spring, especially when he shut down the Braves heavy hitting lineup.  What’s the worst that could happen?  We lose 7-2 to the Mets at home?  Oh, right…that just happened.

So, what the hell?  Why not?  If Doc continues to need mechanical polishing, he should not be doing it here.  I’m sorry, Doc, I got nothing but love for ya, but this is the majors.  No excuses.

Cliff Lee did what Doc and Cole couldn’t

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Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee seems to have his usual pinpoint accuracy so far in 2013.

Heading into the third and final game of the very first series against our division foes, the Atlanta Braves, we had two pitching performances that we would certainly like to forget.  I admit, I was a little worried that Cliff Lee would be pressing a bit coming into his first start of the 2013 season.

After the very first inning of Thursday’s game played, yet again, in less than optimal conditions, my worries were proved to be for naught.  Not only was Lee much better with control of all his pitches, he was downright dominant.  He made kittens out of the lion lineup that put up a total of 6 homers in the first 2 games.

Lee left after the 8th inning with a shutout still intact, only giving up 2 hits and striking out 8.  It was a masterful performance, especially when you consider it was his first outing of the regular season in cold, damp weather.

Unlike Doc Halladay, and Cole Hamels before him, Cliff was able to hit his spots with his fastball, which topped out at a healthy 93 mph.  When he did miss, he didn’t leave it over the middle of the plate, which is what hurt Doc and Cole so much on Monday and Wednesday.

It goes to show you just how much influence the ability to locate your fastball can have on your overall performance.  He was also able to keep the power bats of the Braves off balance with a good mix of changes and curves, too, leaving them reaching and buckling at the knees.

As for the offense, it was just good enough.  The Phils were able to capitalize on some erratic pitching by Medlen in the 2nd inning after loading the bases (again) with a single from Laynce Nix, a double from Erik Kratz, and a walk issued to Cliff Lee.  Revere then knocked in Nix on a fielder’s choice grounder that Uggla could not turn a double play on due to a slight bobble on the exchange.  Jimmy Rollins walked to once again load up the bases for Chase Utley, who drove in Kratz on a sacrifice fly to right.  Medlen finally got out of the inning after Ryan Howard hit a hard line drive right to the shortstop, Andrelton Simmons.

That was it for the scoring the entire night, but the Phils were certainly not without their chances.  All in all, they had the bases loaded 3 different times, but could only get those 2 runs out of it.

Howard and Nix both hit balls that could have possibly been home runs with some help from the weather, but the conditions proved too much for even the hardest hit balls on this night.  Even Freddie Freeman, who has been a manchild all spring and into the first 2 games of the season, was cut down by the wind and cold on this night.

Final Analysis

Overall, it was a good win, and I’m not overly concerned about the offense.  J-Roll has been seeming pretty comfortable hitting out of the 2 hole (2-5, 2B, SB), and Howard hit the ball hard on a few occasions, although the single he hit in the first inning might have been the weakest contact of the night for him.

Chase Utley’s knees still don’t seem like a problem, as he is running extremely well.   He also added another hit and an RBI to his early season totals, making him 5 for 11 (.455 avg) with a double, a triple, and a HR.

Ben Revere hasn’t done much, yet, but has shown some promising signs that he will soon get into the swing of things at the top of the order.  If he can get on base a bit more consistently, the Phillies will be much better for it.

Today is the Home Opener down at Citizen’s Bank Park, with Kyle Kendrick getting the start.  I am very interested to see if the bats come alive in front of the hometown crowd with a little warmer weather.

The good, the bad, and the ugly for Halladay

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Roy Halladay

Should we be concerned about Halladay’s shaky first start?

Ok, so, we are now 2 games into the Phillies’ 2013 season, and have yet to break into the win column.

Would I rather them be 2-0 after these two games?  You bet your ass.

Should we start making vacation plans for October?  Not quite.  At least, not yet.

Don’t get me wrong, I have been anxiously awaiting the second game of this season just like every other loyal Phillies fan, and with good reason.  Roy “Doc” Halladay was slated to start, and it had a tad more significance than years past.

Halladay had a spring to forget (6.06 ERA, 1.837 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 in 6 starts), after a year to forget in 2012 (4.49 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 in 25 starts), so after averages from 2003 through 2011 of 2.97 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, and  1.4 BB/9, we were all wondering if he would be able to bounce back in his first start this season.

Then, it was raining.  Now, I know he is Roy Halladay, a major leaguer that was arguably the best in the game during the last half of the 2000′s, but rain is no fun to pitch in.  This is especially true for a pitcher that must have perfect location in order to be effective, which, let’s be honest, is now the situation that Doc is in.  With his velocity topping out at 92 mph, you gotta be a realtor.  Meaning…Location, location, location.

So, what did I see tonight after Doc went just 3.1 innings, striking out 9, but allowing 6 hits (including 2 HR), 5 earned runs, and 3 BB?

The Good

Like I said previously, Doc’s fastball was topping out at 92 mph.  That is a couple ticks above where he had been sitting most of spring training.  That is not an overpowering fastball in “The Show”, but it is good enough to be effective, if you hit your spots, which I will get to in a little bit.

He seemed to have good slow stuff tonight, which showed in the amount of K’s he put on the board in just 3.1 innings.  I believe that all of his 9 K’s came on either a curveball or change up.

The Bad

Remember how I said that Doc’s fastball topped out at 92 mph?  Well, that only occured, as far as I can remember, just one time.  By the 3rd inning, he was back to the 87-89 mph range that we had been accustomed to seeing in spring training.  That, in and of itself, is nothing to really be worried about. But…

The Ugly

Doc was certainly not Doc tonight.  It wasn’t just in his stuff, which, I really do believe will improve.  It was also in his demeanor.  The cyborg that Phils’ fans knew and loved prior to 2012 was a no show tonight.    When there was a questionable call, he let his discontent be seen.  Lip readers were not needed to know what he was saying.  In his defense, though, there were some questionable calls, but Halladay never used to worry about that type of thing.  He never used to care because he always knew he was better than the hitter standing (about) 60 feet away.  That was certainly not the feeling you got tonight.

Halladay relied heavily on his curveball tonight, that much was apparent.  When he got hurt, or allowed a walk, it was because he just could not locate his fastball.  After a quick replay of the first 3.1 innings he pitched, it is a certainty that he has not been able to repeat his mechanics so far.  Some of his cutters and sinkers looked good, hitting their spots.  Others, well, not so much.

Both of the dingers Doc gave up Wednesday night were on fastballs.  He didn’t seem to have a problem keeping them down in the zone, since both were right around the knees.  No, it was the location on the plate that he had trouble with.  The first, given up to Justin Upton, was at the knees in the middle of the plate.  The same could be said about homer on the fastball to Evan Gattis.  Previously, Doc would have started them on the middle of the plate, only to trail off towards the knees of the hitter, forcing them to swing over top of it harmlessly.  A minor adjustment, but a much needed adjustment to say the least.

Final Analysis

Is this the end of the world?  Certainly not.  I believe that Halladay will continue to make adjustments throughout the first half of the season, progressively getting more productive.

Will he be the top of the rotation starter that we would all love to see?  It’s possible, but, not likely.  I think that, at this point, Doc has #3 starter stuff, but can pitch out of the #2 spot simply because of his experience and pitching IQ.

Nobody works harder than Doc at the mental aspect of this game, and you can’t discount that fact.  Against some of the teams in the lower half of the National League, he still may flash brilliance.  But, against teams like the Braves, Nationals, Reds, Dodgers, and Giants, he will have to put out tremendous effort to get wins.

As of right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Doc ends up with a 14-12 record and a ERA just under 4.00.  Hey, I’ll take that, especially if the offense can start to step it up over the course of the season.

Who knows, though, maybe Doc can totally turn things around and be the guy we all hoped he would be throughout his contract.  I won’t count it out.  What I do know is this, if he can give us a W-L record above .500, and the offense produces the way it can, we will slide into one of the Wild Card spots this year.

Side Notes

Chase Utley is still Chase Utley.  Enough said.

The umpire who called Michael Young out for not giving a throwing lane to first should get his eyes checked.  I don’t know what the rule says exactly, but I can almost gaurantee the white baseline (which is where Young’s foot was when he got hit by the throw) isn’t out of the baseline…

Ryan Howard and Spring Training

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Ryan Howard

Can “The Big Piece” translate spring success into regular season production?

There has been a lot of optimism surrounding Clearwater, Florida these days, which is where the Philadelphia Phillies hold their annual spring training.  But hold on a second, weren’t they lucky last season even to get back to a .500 record?  Yeah, you could say that, but things aren’t always black and white.  Underachieving was prevelant, but there were many of the Phils’ main contributors that lost significant playing time, mainly Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy “Doc” Halladay.

Halladay showed some promising signs in his first 3 appearances, Utley is playing in Spring Training games for the first time in years with no signs of discomfort, and Domonic Brown has 3 HR already. But one of the biggest reasons for fans in Philadelphia to be optimistic is Phillies’ slugger Ryan Howard seemingly returning to form after a ruptured Achilles injury cost him half of the 2012 season.  Even after he came back in July, it was obvious that he was not at full strength, and it severely affected most of his stats.

One thing that Philly fans did learn in the second half of the season last year was that when “The Big Piece” is out of the lineup, the effects are felt throughout the entire squad.  One could make a case that it put more pressure on the pitching staff, especially with the performances from pitchers like Antonio Bastardo looking as different as night and day from the first half to the second half.  He had an ERA over 5.00 in the first half, and it hovered just over 3.00 in the second.  Obviously, that is quite a disparity and I don’t believe in coincidences.

One area where it is almost impossible to dispute Howard’s effect on the team is in the overall results.

In the first half of the season, things seemed as dismal for the Phils as they had been since the first half of the 2000′s, where it seemed like we would never get back to the playoffs much of the time.  We ended up with a 37-50 W-L record heading into the All-Star break.  Both Utley and Howard had just returned off the DL, but nothing had really changed, yet.

The Phillies then proceeded to play more like they had from 2007-2011, ending up with a 44-31 record in the second half.  That is a Win% of about .567, which, if you do the math over a 162 game season, would equate to 95 wins.  So, even with the plethora of issues plaguing the Phils over the first half of the season, they still managed to come out and play like a contender for the remainder of the season once the team was healthy.

Like I said above, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.  Last year after Howard returned from his time on the DL, his presence was felt throughout the lineup, but his performance was still lacking in most tangible metrics.  He did manage to slug 14 dingers and plated 56 RBI in only 71 games, but other than that, his numbers were pretty poor.

The good news is that Howard has now had a full offseason to work on getting back to 100% health, and all signs are pointing toward the fact that he has achieved that.  He is also showing that there is a good chance that he can still be productive for the Phillies this season.  He has played in every single game up until today, going 12 for 33 with a triple slash of .364/.389/.727 and 3 HR.

Now obviously this is just spring training, and numbers don’t mean much of anything right now…or do they?

Yesterday, Todd Zolecki, beat writer for the Phils, pointed out an interesting prediction system originated by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions.  It’s quite simple actually, unlike many of the prediction systems around these days, and this is how he explained it…

“Baseball statistician and author John Dewan found that players who beat their career slugging percentage by more than 200 points in Spring Training have more than a 60 percent chance at beating their career slugging percentage during the regular season (minimum 200 regular season at-bats and 40 Spring Training at-bats).”

It’s an interesting theory, but this is the Phillies, it couldn’t possibly work for us, could it?  It sure seems that everything that makes logical sense just doesn’t seem to have a place in the city of brotherly love and their sports teams.  But wait, what was that Todd?

“It is not a fail-proof predictor obviously, but it is something interesting to watch before the Phillies open the regular season April 1 in Atlanta. Consider for a moment that since Dewan started writing about his Spring Training predictor in 2005, eight of the 12 Phillies on his list ended up surpassing their career slugging percentages during the regular season. And of the four players that fell short, two were not everyday players (Eric Bruntlett in 2009 and Pete Orr in 2011) and one got injured midway through the season (Jim Thome in 2005).”

Well, Okay, but you didn’t give any examples of the players that this system actually did predict outcomes for.  Who exactly are we talking about here?  Wilson Valdez, Mini-Mart, other utility guys like that?  No?  Well, who then?

“…the list successfully predicted good seasons for Pat Burrell and Placido Polanco in 2005, Howard in 2006, Chase Utley and Greg Dobbs in 2007, Jayson Werth and Carlos Ruiz in 2009 and Ruiz again in 2012.”

So, regardless of how corny that faux convo that I had with Mr. Zolecki was, you probably see what I’m getting at.  It is possible that the mashing that is going on this spring could foretell good things to come for the Phils in 2013.

By the time Zolecki wrote his article, there were 3 Phillies that were looking like they could fit that bill.  Ryan Howard, Domonic Brown, and Kevin Frandsen.

Yes, you are reading that correctly, it says Kevin Frandsen.  Yeah, the Kevin Frandsen that “doesn’t have the power to be an every day third baseman”.  Oh and by the way, he went 2 for 3 today with a solo shot off David Price.  You may know David Price from the 2008 World Series, and, oh yeah, winning the Cy Young Award last year.  That puts Frandsen at a .808 SLG percentage for spring training so far, only about .444 above his career average of .364 SLG.  That would be a decent OPS during the regular season, but that is his slugging percentage through 26 AB’s this spring.

Brown has regressed a little since Zolecki stated that he had an .808 slugging percentage through 26 AB’s before yesterdays game.  He has smacked 2 base-hits in each of the past 2 games (2 for 3 each game), so although his batting average has been rising, his slugging percentage has dropped 50 points to a pathetic .758 SLG.  Psshhh!  I could do that…but seriously, that is almost double his career mark of .388 SLG in the majors over the past 3 seasons.

The only person that isn’t in line to be .200+ over their career slugging mark as of right now is Ryan Howard.  who dipped down to .727 SLG in yesterday’s game, and is getting his first day off today with the team facing the Tampa Bay Rays.  That is .176 above his career mark of .551 SLG, so he could still end up toppling that mark by the end of spring training.  Even if he can’t top his previous career mark, just achieving close to that mark would be sufficient in my eyes.

Obviously, no matter what prediction methods we use, we will not know how the team will do during the regular season until it’s the regular season, but Philly at least has a reason to be excited for April 1st when we start the season down in Atlanta against the Braves.  Hopefully we can put the Braves’ shiny new outfield to the test.

UPDATE (3/9/2013 @ 4:45 pm): Ryan Howard, after going 1 for 3 today with his 4th HR of spring training, raised his slugging percentage back up to .778.  This means he is at +.227 SLG over his career mark of .551.  We’ll see if he can keep it in that range the remainder of Grapefruit League play.

Domonic Brown and Spring Training

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Domonic Brown

Dom Brown looking like he adopted the “beastmode” philosophy this offseason.

***DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE ONLY SPRING TRAINING GAMES*** 

The usual disclaimer applies to anything that happens in Spring Training, as it should.  Bill Baer of “Crashburn Alley” recounts a handful of the examples supporting the disclaimer, and he surely could have dug deeper.

BUT – Desperate times call for desperate measures.  And I might be alone in my thinking, but it seems as if the roller-coaster case of Domonic Brown might oblige extenuating circumstances for Roob and Cholly just this once.  The prospect of Domonic Brown reaching anything resembling his potential this year, when the phillies need it the most, is just too intriguing to dismiss.

As there always has been for Brown, there are roadblocks he must either navigate or destroy.  Ruben Amaro Jr. not only went out and signed a (sorta) proven commodity in the 2012 ALCS MVP Delmon Young (feels like an oxymoron when I type that phrase), but also subsequently mentioned that in his “perfect world” Young would be the starting right fielder.  (Smh)

This fact, along with the injuries and inconsistencies of Brown’s major league career to this point, have certainly put some pressure on him to produce - early and often - in 2013 for him to even be on the 25 man roster, let alone get consistent playing time.

The chances for Brown this season do get better since it’s been well documented that Delmon Young will, in all likelihood, start the season on the disabled list; he is expected to miss anywhere from a couple weeks to the whole month of April.  This gives Brown a headstart, but a short one, at best.

One would think given these circumstances that Brown’s Spring Training stats/performance, however inconclusive, must have some bearing on what happens in the Phils outfield to start the season.  And if that is the case, he has put himself in a very good position thus far at the plate to acquire some acreage beside Ben Revere at the start of the regular season.  Through the first 8 Grapefruit League contests he’s accrued:

16 AB, 9 R, 6 H, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6 BB, 2 K, .375 AVG, .565 OBP, .813 SLG, and 1.378 OPS.

Not bad, even if it is only Spring Training.  At the very least, it certainly doesn’t hurt his chances.

Supposedly, Brown has put on 10 lbs. of muscle over the offseason, and by the look of him, I don’t doubt it.  But his success could also be partially attributed to the tutelage of new assistant hitting coach Wally Joyner, who Brown has seemed to connect well with so far in camp.  As Matt Gelb points out in an earlier article, Brown and Joyner have a little more in common than just baseball.

“Both, coincidentally, attended Redan (Ga.) High School. Brown was unaware. Joyner struck up a conversation.”

Joyner said that most of the instruction given to Brown was about how he held the bat in his hands.  Whatever he said, it seems to be working.

Maybe all he needed was this different grip…?

If it is the same grip that an instructor taught me in high school, it very well could have that profound of an impact.  When you line up the first knuckles on your fingers together when holding the bat, it feels uncomfortable at first.  My instructor then made a demonstration.  He told me to hold the bat how I always had before and take a half swing, ending at the point of contact.  He then pushed against the bat in the direction that the baseball would be traveling, and told me to hold him back.  I thought I was a pretty strong back then, but when he pushed on the bat it didn’t take him much effort to push right through and break the form of my wrists.

So then he told me to line up my knuckles and repeat the process.  My wrists stayed put.  I actually started stepping backwards when he really started pushing, but my wrists never broke form.  The answer was obvious when he asked me which grip felt more powerful.  It literally changed the rest of my baseball career, and I never went back to the old way I held the bat.  I had found my power stroke.

Brown seems like he found his power stroke, too, putting a ball over the batter’s eye (estimated at 450′+) the other day against the Yankees’ Zach Nuding.

DB's center field shot

This (red circle) is where it ended up for those of you that haven’t seen it.

After looking a little deeper and dissecting some of his swings from this years ST games via DVR (how did we ever get along without this wonderful technology?), it looks to me that if he can replicate his swing consistently, the production will come.  He seems like he has a good base, which has helped him stay balanced throughout the entire swing.  His hands start lower and his swing is more compact and explosive with less of an uppercut.  They have tried to move his hands down in the past, but for whatever reason it didn’t work out.  Bill Baer also did his own analysis of Brown’s swing compared to a swing from 2010 if you want to check it out

It remains to be seen whether or not the former top prospect will be able to continue his success throughout the remainder of Spring Training and into the regular season, of course, but he is setting himself up well to have the chance to do just that.  If he can translate the minor tweaks of tactics and newfound confidence into regular season production, the Phils stand to gain some ground on the lineups of Washington and Atlanta.  It would certainly help having our own 25 year old power hitting outfielder with a rocket arm.

April 1st is just around the corner, so the story of 2013 has yet to begin, but the clock keeps on ‘a tickin’ to the date we have all been waiting for.

2013 Projection: Domonic Brown

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Dom Brown

If Phillies’ fans see this pose about 20 times in 2013, they will be more than happy.

Seems like roughly half of the fanbase in the “City of Brotherly Love” has no love, whatsoever, for former top prospect Domonic Brown, and would like to see him traded for a proven outfielder.

The other half, which includes myself, wishes that Delmon Young didn’t pass his physical so that we don’t have to see him defile the Phillies’ uniform while playing the outfield in Citizen’s Bank Park.  It would have also given Brown, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the real chance he needs to become an every day player in the majors.

Unfortunately, Young did pass his physical (somehow), and he will be donning the red pinstripes that have been exclusively correlated to the Philadelphia Phillies for decades.  Yay.

There just may be a glimmer of hope for Brown, though, since it is likely that Delmon Young will start 2013 on the DL at the commencement of the regular season in April.  That will undoubtedly have an impact on Domonic Brown to kick things off.

For starters, Domonic Brown should get his chance in RF, albeit a brief one, but with Brown already having 3 abridged versions of real chances in the past, it should be second nature by now, right?  Fourth time’s a charm?

He must have come to the realization by now that the people previously pulling for him in the front office, and even the manager’s office, may not be so supportive anymore.  He is on his own.

That can have two very different effects on him and his performance this season.  It could make Brown’s career into an exciting and inspring “coming of age” story, or into a tragedy fit for Shakespeare.  Which one?  We don’t know yet, but there are always two sides to every story.

One school of thought proposes that it could motivate him to prove that he isn’t yet another highly touted prospect that can’t translate talent to major league production.

The second school of thought suggests it could manipulate his confidence even lower.  He already has half the fanbase calling for him to be traded, regardless of whether that is fair or not.  Unfortunately, life ain’t always fair, as we all know.  If Brown struggles this year, we may never see him in a Phillies’ uniform again.

I am, hesitantly, in the first school of thought.  I really think, and hope, that this is the year that Brown takes a real step forward in his progression despite the obstacle course that the Phillies’ brass has perpetually set in front of him. Why?

A few reasons.

1.  Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com lays out some compelling arguments as to why there is still hope for Brown.  Including, comparisons between some players that ended up having extremely productive major league careers, yet started their careers with the momentum of a caterpillar, much like Brown.  If you haven’t seen it yet, some of the names might surprise you.

They aren’t all outfielders with the same skill sets and circumstances, but the point is this…it is possible for players to turn things around after a rocky start (or three).

2. There is another comparison that some in the baseball blogosphere have pointed out before, and this one hits a little closer to home.  Here, you can also see a comparison I churned up using Fangraphs.com on both Domonic Brown and our very own Chase Utley, paying close attention to their statistics at age 24.

As you can see, they are very close on almost all of them.  In some areas, maybe even more than a couple, Brown has a slight edge. Obviously, they had completely different situations, as a whole, but this is also to make the point that Brown is still young, and it is still possible for him to have a meteoric rise in production akin to the rise of one of the most beloved Phillies in recent memory.

It may be unlikely, but hey, stranger things have happened.  I mean, come on, Amaro has already named Delmon Young as the favorite to be the every day right fielder; if that isn’t considered strange, I don’t know what is.

3.  The final reason is this, he has to produce for his survival in baseball, plain and simple.  People tend to be motivated to accomplish much more when their backs are against the wall.  It’s like every April when I realize “Oh shit, I gotta do my taxes!”.  So I spend a night away from books, TV, and statistics and get down to business.  OK, so my taxes and a man’s career are a crappy analogy, but you get the picture.

Anyway, Brown isn’t just playing for a spot on the Phillies’ roster this year, he is playing for the rest of his career.  He is playing not only to show Amaro that he is worth it, but every GM in this great game.  If things go sour with the Phillies this year, but he has some success in spring training and his limited time during the regular season, another team is sure to give him a chance.  If that team is rebuilding, and/or more up to date in the ways of player evaluation today in the modern era, another team could find Brown very appealing.

As David Murphy, Phils’ beat writer, points out here, Dom Brown’s stats over the past couple years were very comparable to Delmon Young’s, at worst, and in some areas, better.

In fact, doing some simple math, if you multiply Brown’s stats from 2012 by a factor of 2.87 (608/212=2.87) to replicate Brown and Young getting the exact same number of plate appearances, it becomes even clearer that their production is strikingly similar, as you can see in the table below:

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS HR BB GDP OPS+ RBI
Dom Brown 608 .235 .316 .396 .712 14 60 17 91 75
Delmon Young 608 .267 .296 .411 .707 18 20 20 89 74

Who knows what would have happened if Brown would have actually had those 608 PA’s last year.  To me, at least, it seemed like he was progressing slow and steady.  Maybe, just maybe, Young’s numbers would have paled in comparison if Brown was given the job at the start of last season.  Too late to find out for 2012, but not for 2013…

Let’s just say, though, for debate’s sake, that Brown starts the season out in RF, due to the initial absence of Delmon Young, and continues with the same amount of production (which DOES include walks by the way, ROOB!) as his previous visits to the majors.  Hovering around the .235 mark for BA, .310 for OBP, and .390 for SLG.  I don’t see Manuel and the “powers that be” letting him get the time he would need to make the necessary adjustments.

So, unfortunately, due to the organization he plays for and their antiquated thought process concerning everything from player evaluation to roster turnover, he will most likely end up coming off the bench, being sent back down to the minors (again), or, at worst, being shown the door for a “proven” commodity.

But, then again, what if he jumps on the tracks with that first train of thought that I mentioned above?  What if, and it is a big what if, he starts off the season ”locked in” right out of the gate?

Let’s say, hypothetically, he explodes off the blocks batting .300/.370/.550  for his triple slash during the month of April.  I think good ole boy Charlie Manuel might have to brush off Delmon’s seat on the pine for him, once he is off the DL, and tell him to get comfy.  I really hope, for Charlie’s sake, that he has the common sense to let it ride and see if it continues.

Of course, those two situations are extremes.  The more likely outcome, and one that Bill James himself has projected for Brown, is that he ends up somewhere in the middle.  And hey, I could live with that as my starting right fielder.  I’m sure Brown, Manuel, and Amaro wouldn’t be opposed to numbers like .274 BA, .347 OBP, and .792 OPS.  They aren’t extraordinary, but they will suffice if the rest of the team doesn’t tank.

So, with all this being stated, I will continue to my own projection, including some others in the table to give a bit of context.

Projectors AB AVG OBP OPS HR R RBI
Bill James 533 .274 .347 .792 17 80 77
RotoChamp 445 .256 .328 .750 14 54 58
ZiPS 497 .265 .332 .793 18 59 60
PhillyPhAnalysis 460 .267 .342 .822 19 62 66

So as you can see, I haven’t given Brown nearly the amount of At-Bats as Bill James or ZiPS, but they didn’t have the knowledge of the Delmon Young signing when their projections came out.  I also gave just a smidgen more than RotoChamp, but not by much.

The reason for that specific number?  I think that Brown will do enough in his spring audition to obligate Manuel to keep him over in RF.

I also think that the way Ruf hits during the spring will have an impact on what happens with Brown.  Dom Brown might not play every day, but after Charlie gets to see Young in the field a few times, I think Brown will end up with the majority of the playing time, especially since he is a lefty.

From there the dominos will start to fall accordingly.  If Ruf continues on a similar pace this season as he had last season, he is pretty much assured a spot in LF due to Charlie’s love of the longball.  With Ruf in left, Charlie will almost be forced to give Brown the spot in RF.

No matter how “iffy” Brown’s routes are in right, they have to be better than Delmon Young’s, especially with the tiny strides I’ve heard so much about from Twins’ and Tigers’ fans.  He is certainly a better defender than Young, so you would think that if they already have Ruf in left every day, they would not want to put another defender in right that will have trouble getting to balls.

I would feel very bad for Revere if Manuel ever puts both Ruf and Young in the lineup at the same time.  He might wanna call Acme for the rocket that Wily Coyote used while trying to catch the Roadrunner, ’cause he is gonna need to be able to fly, quite literally.

When it comes to how he produces in those AB’s, I really do think he will show up this year, for all the reasons stated above.  I saw his power stroke really starting to come around at the end of last year, and that is why the slugging percentage and home runs are a bit higher on my projection.  He may not have that much power in April, but once he gets his feet under him, he will start to hit like he was back in the minors once again.

I really hope I’m correct.  I’ll have nightmares if I have to see Delmon Young in right field on a daily basis.  It was bad enough to see him in the playoffs last year at NL parks.

In conclusion, I think that this is the year that fans of the Phillies will finally get to see some of the mammoth potential that Brown had showed throughout the minors, and we get our right fielder of the future.

I also don’t see Young starting in the field too often in his place, but he can certainly be a useful guy against tough lefties.  Though, I still don’t see a reason for him on the squad with a lefty masher like Mayberry already on the roster, who is obviously a much better defender, and doesn’t have the off-the-field issues..

Young did have an incredible ALCS last October, and I’m sure Manuel will have that on his mind if it is seeming like the Phils could make it to October ball this year.  But like always, we will just have to wait and see.  And speaking of seeing some baseball…

Today is pitchers and catchers reporting to Brighthouse Field in Clearwater and baseball is finally here!  Now we have mere weeks before some of the questions that have been floating around Philly all offseason will begin to be answered.

I love this time of year, and have to agree with something I saw on twitter today…”Even a day of watching Delmon Young is better than a day with no baseball at all.”

So true.

The Phillies’ outfield enigma

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The Phillies came into this offseason with a lot of questions regarding their outfield after trading 2 out of their 3 starting outfielders (Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence) at the trade deadline in 2012.  Both trades brought back prospects with a good deal of potential, with RHP Ethan Martin coming from the Dodgers for ”the Flyin’ Hawaiin” and catcher Tommy Joseph coming from the Giants for “Indis-Pence-able”.  I’ve actually never heard that nickname for Hunter Pence, but that is what he was to the Phillies, ultimately, so I went with it.

Hunter Pence

WTF?

 

 

By the way, where the hell were our pep talks Hunter?!  What, we couldn’t have used them?

 

 

Anyway, I’m getting off track here.  Unfortunately for the Phils, both of the prospects mentioned play on the dirt and not in the grass.  So, to combat that, Nate Schierholtz (among other pieces) was also included in the Pence trade in order to fill one of the two vacant outfield spots.  They also brought up former uber-prospect Dominic Brown from AAA Lehigh Valley to fill the other spot for the duration of the 2012 season.

Schierholtz was hardly even given a chance while wearing Phillies’ red during the second half of last season, only stepping to the plate 73 times before being released during the offseason.  He may not have been anything flashy, but he was a servicable defender in the corners and not a total eyesore at the plate, batting .273 during that span.  One would think that it would have been prudent of the Phils’ brass to keep him for logic’s sake.  He was relatively inexpensive, and they had a noticeable lack of experience in their outfield, but seemingly the front office doesn’t subscribe to that sort of tomfoolery.

After letting Schierholtz walk, the Phils still had some options for their outfield, but I don’t think you could find an expert anywhere in the baseball universe that would say they had a plethora of real options.

Those options included John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Dominic Brown, Darin Ruf, and then possibly Tyson Gillies, who is in the minors and on the Phils’ 40 man roster, but is not really being considered as a major leaguer at this point.

Mayberry has proved to be nothing more than a platoon/bench player.  Laynce Nix has either been injured or ineffective thus far in his tenure in red pinstripes.  Dominic Brown has all the potential in the world, being a former #1 prospect, but has proven absolutely nothing in his 3 cups o’ coffee in the majors. Darin Ruf is already being nicknamed “Babe Ruf” after his record setting 38 dingers at AA Reading in 2012 and his subsequent September callup with the big boys where he kept on mashing, albeit in an extremely small sample (33 at-bats).  Phils’ fans hope that Ruf can keep up that fervent pace as an every day player in the big show, but nobody really knows.  Then of course there is Tyson Gillies, who has had issues both on and off the field during his career in minor league ball, but does have some interesting upside if he can put it all together.

In all reality, the Phillies’ organization and their fans knew that, at the least, 1 or 2 guys would need to be brought in to remedy the meager situation in the outfield grass at Citizen’s Bank Park come spring time.  Thankfully, there was a flock of free agent outfielders on the market this offseason, and even more options when considering the trade market.  We had to get somebody good, right?

When the Phillies came out with the Ben Revere trade, my first thought was “Ben who?”, any relation to Paul?  Then I started to look him up, saw the bio, the stats, the highlight video…

 

Ben Revere diving catch

Now THAT is a diving catch!

 

and especially…the contract we inherited.  I started feeling pretty good about it.  Not only does this kid look pretty exciting to watch, but he was young, cheap, and under team control for an extended period of time.  Time enough to make plenty more “gifs” while in a Phillies uniform.

I liked Worley as much as the next fan, but losing him wasn’t killing me.  He was a 4th starter, and another 4th starter could be had much easier than an every day centerfielder that could help the team, especially at that age/price.  Trevor May, ehhh, not really worried about it.  We have minor league pitching out the “wah-zoo”, and he had somewhat lost my interest in 2012.

The Revere trade got me thinking that the Phils had something much bigger up their sleeves, either for third base or the corner outfield position.  I thought for sure that they were gonna pull a rabbit out of a hat and get Josh Hamilton, similarly to how they pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes during the second ”go ’round” when Cliff Lee ended up as a Phillie.

Then we traded for Michael Young, and the dreams of having another proven slugger in CBP for the foreseeable future got a smidgen bleaker.  I admit that for a minute it had me thinking the whole “Michael Young has a good relationship with Hamilton” thing, but that was eventually ruled out by simple math and logic.  Amaro isn’t going over the luxury tax, no matter if it makes sense to me for the Phillies to just say “screw it” one year before the threshold goes up another $11 million.

I am not as down as some are about the Michael Young trade, especially as a stopgap.  I think he will significantly improve on his offensive numbers from last year, which, in comparison to the rest of the Phillies squad, weren’t as bad as people make them out to be.  I know his “value” as stats like WAR point out was low, but I take my WAR with a heavy dose of salt.  I am a bit worried about his defense, though, especially when Lannan and Kendrick are on the mound.  Then you add in the possibilities defensively that we are speaking of in the outfield, and things get grey.  But, I do think that his condensed reps at third base will help considerably in manning the hot corner, and the guy is a consummate professional, so I will hold out judgement.

After we had CF and 3B covered, added starting pitching depth with John Lannan, and a setup guy in Mike Adams, I was feeling a lot better about our offseason.  One of our biggest issues last year was our bullpen, after all, and having a proven veteran back there (health assumed) to ease some of the pressure off the youngster’s shoulders gave me a warm, fuzzy feeling.

Whether RAJ courted another corner outfielder or not, I cared not.  By this time I knew that the fate of our 2013 season would lay squarely on the shoulders of our pitching and infield.  Adding one of the very slight upgrades in the corner outfield category was not going to make or break our season.

Then, it happened.  News broke that the Phillies signed Delmon Young.  Am I having a nightmare? (OUCH!)  Nope, this is real.  We have Delmon Young.

Is this the same Delmon Young that has such short strides that it looks as if he is wearing shackles when he runs?  The same Delmon Young that shouted anti-semitic slurs outside of a bar last year?  The same Delmon Young that is younger than myself, yet looks a solid 15 years older?  The same Delmon Young that made, with no exaggeration, the WORST throw in World Series history?….

Nice throw Delmon!

Meet the Phillies’ new rightfielder!

 

Yep, thats him.  This (above) is what happened when the Tigers were forced to use Delmon Young in the outfield during the World Series, when they couldn’t hide him defensively as a designated hitter playing in a National League park.

At least the Phils play in the American League and won’t have to use him in the outfield on a regular basis in order to get his bat in the lineup.  Oh wait…we are in the NL East?  Shit….

We might as well just sign Mariah Carey to a one year contract…

Mariah Carey throw

Looks eerily similar…

 

Seriously, after seeing those shenanigans on a national stage last year, what the hell was Ruben thinking?  Was he that mesmerized by the fact that Young was given the ALCS MVP?  Does Young’s agent have the ability to use the “Jedi mind trick” on unsuspecting General Managers?  Are we in the twilight zone?

No matter what the explanation is, we now have to deal with it.  But what does this mean for the rest of the roster?

Before the Delmon Young signing, I was feeling pretty confident that by the end of spring training Darin Ruf and Dominic Brown would be our starting LF and RF, respectively.  Delmon throws a bit of a wrench in those plans, obviously, especially after Ruben Amaro Jr. came out saying that in his “perfect world” Delmon Young would be their every day rightfielder.  There is some light at the end of the tunnel, though.  Young may be starting the season on the disabled list, leaving an opening for Ruf and Brown to make their moves.

They both have their own liabilities on defense, but I think most would agree that they are much better options in the field than Young.  So that just leaves their offensive prowess.

If Ruf seems like he can continue his success at the plate from last season, he shouldn’t have a problem winning the LF spot.  The real question is if Brown can win the RF position from Young in head to head competition with only a small head start.

RAJ

“I don’t care about walks, I care about production.” Wait…do walks count as production?

He did show some progress last year, and he has always had a decent approach at the plate, which is sorely needed on this roster no matter what “Clueless Rube” says about walks and production (See interview after Delmon Young announcement).

But will the time Brown has before Young comes off the DL be enough for him to totally adjust to major league pitching and start to fulfill the potential he has always had?  We all know the saying ”Only time will tell…”, and it certainly rings true this spring for the Phillies’ former “can’t miss” prospect.

The start of this season is of huge importance for the Phils, and not just because of its implications for the rest of 2013.  It is possible that we could find our rightfielder of the future in Dominic Brown in my “perfect world”, or conversely, if Brown continues to underwhelm, we could lose it.

It has been speculated by many analysts that this is Brown’s last chance with the Phillies to earn a place among their starters, and if he doesn’t get it done this year, then he never will.  That may mean that he could be traded for whatever they can get out of him, or just let him rot as yet another minor league journeyman that never lived up to the hype.

I for one, truly hope that he passes this “final”, and does so convincingly.  It sure would be nice to have him join in the transition of one core to the next.  Change is coming Phils fans, and I think we all know it.  It’s time to let our young guys show us what they can really do and cross our fingers.

Phillies somewhat flying under the radar

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CBP

Beautiful spring baseball is around the corner at CBP in Philly.

General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. did not make the big splash during this offseason that we have grown accustomed to as Phillies’ fans.  Some fans may be upset about this, but I, for one, am not.  I believe that this could actually play in our favor this season, at least in the early going.

For the last half of a decade or so the Phillies have not only been on the radar, but they have been the biggest blip on the screen that the other talented teams in the NL have been aiming their weapons at.  My, my, my… how the tables have turned.

When Jimmy Rollins told the media that we were “the team to beat” in 2007, people looked at him as though he had 2 heads and 8 arms (which might make a good baseball player, come to think of it), seeing as though the Phillies had not been relavant in baseball since the early 1990′s, and that was a mere pitstop, at best.  Now, after Jimmy exclaims that he is excited for another parade down Broad street, the feelings of teams like the Nationals, Reds, Giants, Braves, and Dodgers are most likely very similar to ’07.  They look at what every team has on paper and might even feel bad for Jimmy, thinking that he has lost his mind after the much publicized fall of the proverbial map that the Phillies have endured in such a short amount of time.

I say bring on the doubters, the haters, and the jokes about our aging core that should be put into a retirement home.  I hope they scream the trash talk about our young and unproven outfield from the rooftops.  Keep it coming, fellas, for you know not what you do.

We have a veteran core that knows how to deal with pressure and ridicule (they play in Philly for Pete’s sake), and also knows what it takes to put yourself (back) on the map, having done it back in ’06 and ’07, culminating in a World Series title in ’08.  We still have a starting staff that has the potential to be dominant, and we retooled our bullpen a bit to make sure that we don’t have the same problems as we did last year, losing the lead in 13 games in the 8th inning alone.

Now we have a good mix of energy and wisdom, and like I expressed in my previous articles, we have the motivation to make a big leap this year if some balls bounce our way.  Make no mistake, we have a tough road ahead of us.  But noticing that the Phillies have some of the easier stretches in the season towards the front will certainly be helpful for a team that still isn’t sure what they have yet.

Dom Brown has some time, theoretically, before he must be performing at a high level at the plate and in the field.  Doc Halladay has time to make sure he doesn’t try to do too much before figuring out what is gonna work for him if he has truly lost some velocity for good.  Chase Utley can take some days off to make sure his degenerative knees aren’t an issue when it matters most.  Howard has time to ease his way back into the season, making sure that he concentrates on his approach at the plate and to not just to always mash the first fastball he gets to see.  Ben Revere can use this time to get accustomed to being a major league leadoff hitter (hopefully this is not just wishful thinking) while continuing to raise his OBP.  And if Ben Revere is the new leadoff man for Charlie Manuel and the Phils, Jimmy Rollins will have to do whatever it takes mentally to prepare himself not to be the leadoff man.  He should be hitting somewhere down in the order and use his power to clean the table, instead of being the one to set it.

All in all, there is a wide range of possibilities for this squad.  If every single player on this team plays up to their potential, we could possibly win 90+ games and make a run at another World Series title.  If none of what I explained happens, though, we might be looking back at the 2012 season as “the good ole days” (scary huh?).  Let’s hope for the sake of all Phillies’ fans that it will end up being the former.

One thing phillies roster is sure to have – part 2

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"The Man" -HK

Utley’s sweet swing needs to do damage this year for Phil’s to have success.

I started to analyze some of the questions that have been swirling around the Phillies roster so far this offseason, but there were just too many issues to cover.  Due to the fact that I was trying to write an article and not a novel - and I like to sleep – I decided to split it up between two articles.  I have already talked about the pitching staff and Michael Young, so the rest of the position players shall get their turn now.

Outfielders

When fans of other teams look at how our outfield will likely be constructed in April, I start hearing/reading lots of trash talk.  Fans of teams like the Giants, Dodgers, Nationals, and Braves are telling us, as Phillies fans, that our outfield has a ”lack of talent” or even that our outfield is “straight garbage”.  I don’t quite see it that way.  In fact, I think that by the end of the year people might be saying that our outfield is pretty comparable to what the rest of the NL teams have roaming the grass.  Am I being insanely optimistic?  Perhaps.  Am I off my rocker?  Who knows such things?  Only “the Oracle” I suppose.

Unfortunately this is not the matrix, and we have no ”Oracle” at our disposal to answer these questions.  Some sabermetricians, on the other hand, would like us to think that they have it all figured out, or at the very least that they can tell you what is or is not likely to happen.  There is just one thing wrong with that theory, baseball is a sport played by human beings, not computers.  Don’t get me wrong, I love sites like “baseball-reference.com” and “fangraphs.com” that give you every single statistic you could ever want (and a bit more sometimes).  That doesn’t mean, though, that they can predict the future, even within a certain percentage.  That is the beauty of baseball, and sports in general, literally anything can happen.

For the Phillies this year, what I think it comes down to is motivation.

No, Dominic Brown has not quite lived up to his billing as a “sure thing” in the majors like scouts were touting at the end of 2010.  Does that mean that he will not become a productive major leaguer?  Absolutely not.  But things have to change, and change quickly, if he wants to produce the way that the Phillies organization had imagined he would when they kept telling other team’s GM’s he was “untouchable”.

Some fans may have been turned off during the past two seasons due to the lack of consistent production he provided at the major league level.  The thing is, I truly do believe that he has been somewhat mishandled by the Phillies during that time span, which ultimately led to a lack of confidence.  Any baseball guy will tell you that confidence is monumental in the development of baseball prospects.

Brown has also had a laundry list of minor injuries that have made it all but impossible to have any extended time at one level, never allowing him to fully adjust in any lineup.  What would I do if the decision were mine to make?  I would give him the job in right field full time if he is healthy at the end of spring training, and tell him to bring his lunch pale.

He has surely heard all the rumblings from analysts and fans saying that he is a bust, which makes me think he will do everything in his power to silence those people if given the proper chance.  Brown should be playing with a chip on his shoulder in 2013, aka MOTIVATION.

Darin Ruf hasn’t even been on most fan’s radar very long, popping up last year after hitting the cover off the ball at Double A Reading.  Almost as if the baseball gods heard the prayers of Phillies fans asking for a righty slugger, Ruf goes on a tear in the second half of the 2012 season and belts a Reading Phillies record of 38 bombs, inching out our very own Ryan Howard’s previous record of 37.

But even after this spectacular showing against advanced minor league pitching, many analysts around baseball have been less than impressed.  I have heard that Ruf has “slow hands” and even if he reaches his full potential, he is an “organizational power bat”, at best.  Ruf seems to have a pretty calm demeanor, but if it were me, I’d be itching to get out there in 2013 and figuratively place a “post-it” on each of their mouths that reads “INSERT FOOT”.  To me, I think he has the potential to do just that.

Ben Revere is another Phillies outfielder in 2013 that isn’t getting much respect from the “experts”.  It all comes down to the fact that Revere has literally no discernable power in his bat, as if that is the only thing that can make a difference in a baseball game.  Does anybody remember what a real leadoff hitter is supposed to do anymore?  I’ll give them a hint: THEY HAVE TO GET ON BASE AND SCORE RUNS!  Does it matter how they plate runs?  Not in the slightest.

The Phillies are paying this young burner to act like the little guy within your group of friends when a fight breaks out.  He should dart back and forth with a “mini-bat” hitting whoever he can reach to pester, frustrate, and confuse them, then let the big bangers knock them out.

There is a reason we have guys like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in this lineup, and if they are healthy this year, Revere will get plenty of chances to touch homeplate no matter how far he hits the ball.  Not only does Revere have similar critics to the rest of our outfield, but he is already just a young guy trying to prove he belongs in the show for a long time to come.  I’m sure that he would love to breach the AAV of $1 million before too long as well.  I really hope these haters are forced to eat their words before this years playoffs commence.

Infielders

Phillies slugger Ryan Howard should have all the blog posts and newspaper articles from Philly and around the country spelling out the majestic blooper the Phillies executives made when they extended Howard’s contract to an astronomical amount well before he was due for free agency.  Ryan Howard has seemingly been on the decline ever since he inked his name on the dotted line, and last year didn’t make it any better.  With his extension set to start in 2012, Ryan Howard was not only absent from spring training, but was MIA nearly half the season due to a ruptured achilles that occured on the very last play of the 2011 season.

Howard came back last season without his full health, and though his batting numbers weren’t good across the board, his power numbers remained promising despite the fact that he most likely would have been eligible for a handicapped parking pass through the DMV.

This year, however, Howard has gotten at least close to full health and has had a full offseason of strength training and baseball activities under his belt.  With the disappointing 2012 season behind him, and the possible breakup of the band after this season, Howard should want to make 2013 a season to remember.

We will need him to show up in a big way, too, because our rivals in the East aren’t making a comeback to prominence easy on us.  They’re good, and what’s even worse, is they know it.  Let’s hope for all our sakes that Howard burns with the motivation I’d certainly have in his situation.

Our star second baseman for the last decade or so, Chase Utley, has done a lot for this team and this town in the past.  Now, we need him to do just a little more.  Baseball pundits around the nation were wondering if Chase Utley would ever be able to produce at an elite major league level again after the way he came back into action in 2011.  Lucky for us, he came back in 2012 and was better than most expected him to be.  I would go so far as to say he was almost elite when only second basemen are considered.

Chase has more than just the injury issues driving him to succeed this year too, since this is the final year of his contract with the Phillies.  He will either be trying to show the Phils that they can’t afford to lose him, or he will be auditioning for his team of the future.  Either way, he wants to put his bat, glove, and even his legs on display this year, and make sure it has a bit of “wow factor” as well.

Of all the Phillies looking to turn some heads this year for various reasons, I have the utmost confidence in our golden boy.  He showed me a lot when he came back last year, most importantly the fact that he has seemingly found a way to minimize the pain in his knees and maximize the strength in his legs.  He was driving the ball well, unlike when he came back in 2011.  His power rates were back up, and he even got his BA up to .256 by the end of the season by adjusting over the course of the second half last year.  Personally, I believe Chase will be back to hitting in the upper .200′s and hitting 20+ dingers.  That will only happen if he plays almost the entire year, but Chase has the motivation and grit to make it happen.

A lot has been said about the longest tenured player on the Phillies roster in recent years.  Jimmy Rollins has always been the cream of the crop at shortstop defensively, but some say he will never be the offensive player that won the NL MVP award in 2007.  My opinion would be this, he doesn’t have to be.

Unfortunately for him, though, I don’t think Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has been using him to maximize his batting skills.  Jimmy isn’t a leadoff hitter anymore, and hasn’t been for quite some time now, but that hasn’t stopped Cholly from using him in that spot.  Jimmy has the approach and skills more akin to a power hitter, and his 23 homers last year would lend credence to that.  So I say, use it.  We now have a player (Ben Revere) that can fill in the leadoff spot and hopefully refine his approach to add to his high contact rate, thus allowing Jimmy to be…Jimmy.  He needs to be allowed to use his aggressive approach at the plate and decent power to drive in runs that Ryan Howard doesn’t manage to get in himself.  He also spreads out some of the speed and baserunning ability we have to the bottom half of the order for Chooch and Brown to knock in.

Jimmy shouldn’t be worried about a move down in the batting order, because he can still fulfill a great need for this team, even if it isn’t the same need as it has been the rest of his career.  If Jimmy can look inward and truly know what he is as a player at this stage of his career, he can be extremely effective out of the 5 or 6 hole.  He should be chomping at the bit to get out there and just unload on fastballs.  Sounds like fun to me.

He has also already put comments out to the public about being excited for another parade in Philly this year, so that is telling me that he is ready for action this summer.  Lets hope he can keep on being himself, because the Phils can use that more than ever this year.

I have laid out a mammoth amount of evidence leading to the conclusion that the Phillies roster should be one of the most motivated in all of baseball.  If they are to have any chance of competing with the likes of the Nationals, Reds, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves for the National League crown come October, I’ll need to be correct in my assumptions.  There is way too much talent in the National League, and the rest of the majors, to expect success just because we had been accustomed to it over the past decade.  If this Phillies squad truly wants to be remembered with some of the greats, they need to win despite the fact that nobody believes they can.  That is the greatest motivation of all if you ask me.

One thing phillies roster is sure to have – part 1

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Michael Young looks to answer questions.

Michael Young looking to bounce back in 2013 after waving goodbye to the Rangers.

 

 

It is undeniable that the Phillies have more questions/issues related to their roster this offseason than in any other offseason in recent memory.

  1. Our entire outfield is either young, has had recent injuries, are strictly role players, or are unproven at the major league level.
  2. Our starting third baseman just had the worst year of his career for the Rangers and some consider him a below average defender.
  3. Our newly acquired setup man is coming off surgery.
  4. We do not know for sure what we will be getting out of the only proven major league slugger we have in Ryan Howard.
  5. Our second baseman is seemingly healthy, relatively speaking, but that’s what we heard last year.
  6. Our beloved catcher, who was arguably our best player last season, tested positive for a banned substance and will start the season on a 25 game suspension (most of April).
  7. Our staff ace since 2010, Roy Halladay, is coming off a surprisingly erratic year due to an injury that he was obviously bothered by all season.
  8. We may see our perennial leadoff hitter of the past decade or so bumped down in the lineup, but his numbers have always suffered when batting anywhere but the leadoff spot.
  9. We had to replace a decent fourth starter, due to a trade for an every day CF, with a guy who spent a good deal of 2012 in AAA for the Nationals and is a fifth starter at best.
  10. Our manager is in the final year of his contract, and has been making some questionable decisions over the years for a variety of reasons.  Loyalty to players and being just plain stubborn have been mentioned before.

What do all these questions and uncertainties lead us to in the 2013 season?  Motivation.

As you look down the roster as it is right now, there aren’t many players that don’t have something to prove for one reason or another.  Maybe all these questions can end up being a good thing, a perfect storm of sorts, driving the team to surpass all expectations that have been laid out for them.

There is a lot of pressure on our starting staff, most notably, “Doc” Halladay.  We don’t know if he will get the velocity or control back from 2011 that we came to expect every fifth day, but something tells me he will be just fine.  Halladay has been known for having a drive and work ethic that is hard to beat in the world of sports.  If it is possible for him to come back as a pitcher close to his former self, you have to think that he is one of the guys that could pull it off.  I am sure he doesn’t want to listen to the doubts of baseball pundits, but it’s hard not to hear them.  He will undoubtedly have something to prove in 2013.

Cliff Lee had a weird season last year.  If you never saw his W-L record, instead solely paying attention to the rest of his stats, you would think he had 15+ wins in 2012.  Unfortunately, he had some of the worst run support in the league, lending to his record of 6 wins and 9 losses.  This is a guy that threw 10 shutout innings against the Giants last year in a dual with opposing pitcher Matt Cain, and still somehow came out of that game with a notch in the loss column.  The real pressure is on the offense to score when Lee is on the mound, but it could be tough mentally if he continues to pitch well and still doesn’t get the wins he deserves.  If it were myself, I would want to pitch even better to prove that 2012 was an anomaly.

Though the questions about the rest of the starters may not be white hot topics, they are still present.  Mainly it comes with the projected fourth and fifth starters, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan, respectively.  Kendrick pitched as good as anybody after the all star break last year, so the big question is can he replicate that production after being bumped up the depth chart when Vance Worley vacated the fourth starter spot after being traded to the Twins?

Lannan, on the other hand, has to prove that he is still a solid starter in the major leagues, after seemingly losing the confidence of his former team, the Nationals, in 2012.  He spent most of the season last year in AAA, but was brought back up to the big leagues after the hugely debated shutdown of Stephen Strasburg.  He started 6 games for the Nationals and went 4-1 with an ERA of 4.13 in them.  He may not have the flashy stats of some of the elite pitchers in baseball, but he can be a decent fifth starter that can win some decisions with a little help from the defense behind him.  He gets batters to hit the ball on the ground a little over half the time, which means the defense is his best friend.  He doesn’t give up too many dingers, either, which was one of the most frustrating points about “Smokin’ Joe” Blanton.  He not only gets his chance to prove himself in the majors once again, but he also gets the chance to face his former team since he stayed in the NL East.

One of the issues facing the Phils during this offseason was the need for a veteran presence in the bullpen to help bridge the gap between the starters and our all-star closer - Jonathan Papelbon.  Last year there was a lot of pressure on youngsters in the pen, especially after an injury to Mike Stutes in the beginning of the season.  There were a total of 13 blown leads in the 8th inning alone last year, many of which falling upon Antonio Bastardo during the first half of the season.  He and the other young guys back there have plenty of potential, but their lack of seasoning became evident while trying to get the game into the 9th inning.

In comes Mike Adams, who has been primarily used as a setup man over the course of his career, and he has been one of the best in the game at that position.  Last year was tough on the veteran reliever due to an injury, and it showed, especially toward the end of the season.  After having surgery over the offseason, Adams will have to prove that he is still the dominant setup man that allowed him to make a name for himself.  He is being paid quite well for a reliever that doesn’t pitch in the 9th inning, earning $12 million over the next two years.  That tells you all you need to know about how the Phillies front office feels he will help this club.  Now all he has to do is prove it.

Adams isn’t the only new Phillie that has to prove he can still get the job done at a high level.  Another veteran over 30 years old from the Ranger’s organization joined the Phillies this offseason - Michael Young.  There has been a lot of negativity and doubt when it comes to the former perennial all-star after a relatively poor season compared to his stats in previous seasons.  As recently as 2011, when he batted .338 with a .854 OPS, he was considered one of the most consistent hitters in the majors.  I suppose when his numbers dropped to a BA of .277 and an OPS of .682 last year, that was cause for concern among some circles.  He did still have 169 hits, which would have led the entire Phillies roster, so I take all the negativity with a grain of salt.  Looking at the culmination of Young’s season last year, when he says he “figured something out in his swing”, he hit much closer to the numbers he put up in 2011, batting .313/.360/.478 for his triple slash with 4 of his 8 HR’s coming in the final 31 games of the season during September and October.

Hopefully the change of scenery, the change with his swing, and the fact that he has only one defensive position to concentrate on in 2013 will allow Young to become the hitter he was throughout his illustrious career with the Rangers.  He undoubtedly feels “some-type-of-way” about how the Rangers treated him over the last few years, moving him around the diamond to whatever position was left and also using him as a designated hitter, even though he was a career .300 hitter and the unofficial leader of that clubhouse.  I believe that not only will he fit right into a Phillies roster with a mix of wily veterans and energetic youngsters, but he will have plenty of motivation from the media coverage talking about how much he has declined.  I can’t wait to see him come back with a vengeance.

With the amount of questions that need to be covered, I will break this up into two seperate pieces, with the continuation coming tomorrow.  If there are any questions or comments you have before I post it, leave them below.

TO BE CONTINUED 1/16/2013…